Autumn in Kyiv is beautiful. Women are still dressed in style, the leaves are starting to change, the air is as clean as ever, and life is incredibly good for an expatriate American.
People in Kyiv always leaned towards the West. With Putin’s raging to the East, whatever ambivalence there may have been has faded. Ukraine wants no more of the Mongol horde! Ukrainians hear the terrible propaganda that Russia is spreading among its own people, and they are both terrified and hardened in their resolution. Any dreams that the “brother nations” might unite has totally evaporated.
Still, the danger is limited. Putin has wrecked his own economy and his standing in the world by inflicting what damage he has so far. He can hardly maintain the pose of “savior of the Slavic people” if he persists in killing them. His claim to be representing the interests of repressed ethnic nations was hardly credible even in Crimea and Donbass. Elsewhere in Ukraine the hatred of Russia is palpable. The time is long past when a tsar could repress a large, unwilling and informed country such as Ukraine. He won’t try.
Russia’s war in Eastern Ukraine has cost around 2,500 lives. To put that in perspective, this country of 44 million loses 8,000 lives per year to traffic accidents. Almost all of the deaths have taken place in the east. Staying out of harm’s way has been and remains an easy task. If you are someplace where Putin cannot pretend to be “saving” you, you are safe.
Russia has wrecked the Ukrainian economy. The hryvnya has fallen from eight to the dollar to fourteen, a forty percent fall. Life is incredibly cheap. Even before Maidan, Ukraine was at the bottom of the Economist Magazine’s Big Mac index. That sandwich cost less here than anyplace in the world. I priced it today at $1.50. Compare that with the $4.80 it costs in the US, or $6.90 in Norway,
There were hardly any tourists at all this year. As Russia was her biggest trading partner, Ukraine’s exports have naturally fallen. The flow of foreign investment has dried up. There is a looming threat of a national bankruptcy brought on by Yanukovych’s dreadful management and now Russia’s aggression.
Westerners find life here incredibly cheap. Competition holds everyday expenses, such as groceries, restaurants and services down despite the hryvnya’s lack of buying power. Investment opportunities are more attractive than ever, though history suggests they will become even more favorable before prices start to recover.
Ukraine is a wonderful place to live. It is quite modern in terms of communications, medicine and other infrastructure. The country is renown for its food and drink. Ukrainians like and respect each other – crime is low. They especially like Westerners, and one can live very well on the average Social Security check. Even the American Consulate, usually the bane of an expatriate’s existance, is polite and helpful here. In the extraordinary event that Putin goes totally mad, Americans would still find it easy to leave.
Fortune favors the bold. I got my financial start by betting successfully that the perception of risk in Saigon far exceeded the real risk. Anyone with clear eyes should see that in Ukraine the risks are minimal and the potential rewards – even just money saved – is great. It is time to move!